Цитата(Вале а @ 7.02.2012 - 22:52)

спасибо. собственно вот:
The Brier score measures the total difference between the event (winning) and the forecast
probability of that event as an average squared difference. As a benchmark, a perfect forecaster would
have a Brier score of 0, a perfect misforecaster (predicts probability of win is 1 when loses and 0
when wins) would have a Brier score of 1, and a fence-sitter (forecasts every game as 50/50) would
have a Brier score of 0.25. Our pundit is doing reasonably well.
Тогда: средний квадрат разницы величины и её оценки.